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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
635 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Key Messages:

- Chances for isolated afternoon thunderstorms confined
primarily to far north and south central Georgia for
Independence Day.

- More abundant moisture and better storm chances on Saturday
for areas to the south and east of a line extending from
Columbus to Macon to Athens.

- Afternoon highs in the 90s (Feels Like temperatures in the
mid-90s to lower triple digits), and slightly "cooler"
tomorrow.

Discussion:

With a fairly dry airmass aloft, as evidenced by a dry layer
beginning at ~650mb and sub-1.5" PWATs on yesterday`s 00Z FFC
sounding, Independence Day will be a hot and mostly dry occasion for
much of the forecast area. Isolated thunderstorm development is
possible across portions of north Georgia -- primarily
orographically-induced -- and then far south/southeast central
Georgia, influenced by proximity to a lobe of low pressure that
has formed along lingering frontal forcing across northern
Florida. With little in the way of upper-level support, expect
garden variety summer thunderstorms capable of producing frequent
lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours to be the primary
concern. Highs this afternoon are likely to be in the low-to-mid
90s for all but far northeast Georgia which will remain in the
80s. Heat index values in the upper-90s to lower triple digits are
possible, so be sure to hydrate and plan to take breaks in the
shade if spending today outdoors. Convective activity will begin
to trend downward by 8PM, with most (if not all) afternoon
thunderstorms having tapered off by 9-9:30PM or so, in time for
any fireworks displays. Some lingering wispy mid-to-upper level
clouds are possible after dark in areas that see storm activity,
but otherwise clear to mostly clear conditions are expected
following sunset tonight. Apparent temperatures close to or just
above 90 are likely even as nightfall settles in, so be cautious
if attending any evening festivities.

To kick off the weekend, little change expected aloft: weak ridging
across the eastern half of CONUS and a closed low situated over the
eastern half of the Gulf. As the aforementioned surface low noses to
the north and east toward, better moisture begins to overspread the
southern half of the forecast area. Isolated to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms are possible Saturday, with highest coverage likely
for areas south and east of a line from Columbus to Macon to Athens.
Increased cloud cover for southeast central Georgia will tamp down
on high temperatures by just a tick, topping out in the upper 80s to
near 90, and in the lower 90s elsewhere.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms each day.

- Uncertainty regarding tropical development off the coast of
Georgia contributing to uncertainty regarding where exactly showers
and storms will most likely occur each day.

- Heat index values on the rise next week due to increasing
temperatures and increasing moisture.

Discussion:

Weak deep-layer flow amid a broad mid-/upper-level ridging pattern
will prevail through at least Tuesday. In the lower-levels and at
the surface, our eyes will be on the potential tropical development
of what is currently a loosely organized area of low pressure
over/near Florida. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is continuing
to message a 60% chance of tropical development in the next 7 days.
Ensemble guidance depicts an inverted trough in the lower-levels,
sliding generally northward/northeastward along the coast of Georgia
and the Carolinas from Saturday night through Monday night. The
ensemble guidance dissipates the feature thereafter.

Moisture associated with this inverted trough will bring an influx
of tropical air to at least a portion of the CWA, with the SREF
progging PWATs ranging from 1.7" across northwest Georgia to 2.0"
across east-central Georgia, closer to the feature of interest. Have
maintained 30% to 50% PoPs through mid-week given ample moisture but
uncertainty regarding how the feature evolves (for instance, if dry
air entrainment and/or subsidence on its western periphery squashes
rain chances on any given day). The potential for widespread and/or
organized severe weather is low at this time, given the weak deep-
layer flow and resulting lack of mid-/upper-level disturbances to
provide ascent or frontal lift.

Temperatures and humidity will bear watching on Monday, Tuesday, and
Wednesday. Highs in the mid-/upper-90s and dew points in the lower-
/mid-70s are progged to push heat index values to 105-108
degrees across portions of central Georgia. Heat Advisories would be
needed for values at or above 105 degrees that are expected to last
at least an hour.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conds expected thru the TAF period, with primarily FEW-SCT
cu at 4-6kft or higher. Winds will remain out of the ENE/E at
5-10kts.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

96

&&
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