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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
510 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Key Messages:

-Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, including isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms, expected this afternoon and evening. Damaging
wind gusts (40-60 MPH) will be a main hazard.

-Localized flash flooding in addition to nuisance flooding is
likely to accompany storms that develop.

-Scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected on Wednesday, likely
shifted more towards Central Georgia.


Once again low clouds and patchy fog have begun to develop early
this morning and will likely to persist until shortly after sunrise.
The main story for today will be an uptick in rain and thunderstorm
chances this afternoon through the evening. If low clouds and patchy
fog stick around longer than anticipated thunderstorms may be slower
to develop this afternoon.

Latest water vapor imagery depicts the base of a trough over the
MidSouth/Mid MS Valley Region, along with a small embedded
shortwave. This feature and an associated surface front will provide
some additional lift for storms to work with this afternoon. Latest
hi-res guidance suggests activity could begin developing out ahead
of the front as early as around 12PM. With the only change to our
current environment being more low-level moisture being pumped into
the region by way of southwesterly flow, this is a reasonable
assessment. While not overly impressive, lapse rates and shear will
be slightly higher than what we`ve seen in the past few days and
storms may become more organized and take on more of a linear
formation as they push through the state this evening and
overnight. Hi- res guidance does suggest this idea in addition to
scattered thunderstorms forming out ahead. Current thinking with
regards to timing of strong to severe storms is 3PM to 11PM.
Though could certainly seen a stronger storm before this time.
Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue overnight
for most locations but shift more towards Central Georgia on
Wednesday as the frontal boundary continues moving across the
state. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will still need
to be monitored during this time.

As far as hazards for today, damaging wind gusts 40-60 MPH and
localized flash flooding will be the things to watch. The latter
probably more so. The 00z sounding for FFC indicated PWs ~1.93".
With PWs approaching and likely exceeding 2" today in many areas,
storms will be efficient rain producers thus leading to an increased
risk for flash flooding. With many areas having received a good
bit of rain over the past few days, additional rainfall may cause
some problems. At this time SPC has highlighted a Marginal Risk
(Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms and WPC has highlighted a
Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall -- both for
North GA.

Still warm and muggy today, but clouds and storms should limit
daytime high temperatures to the 80s in most places. Similar
temperatures for Wednesday, though drier air will begin filtering
into far northwest GA behind the front.

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Key Messages.

- Chances for scattered thunderstorms are forecast to remain mostly
in central Georgia late this week with drier air to the north.

- Uncertainty remains with the potential of a low pressure
developing near the Florida Panhandle this weekend.

Model guidance continues to trend towards better agreement on the
amplification of the upper level trough as it advances across the
eastern CONUS through the short term period. This will allow for it
to push the surface frontal boundary further south through Georgia.
Relatively drier air on the back side of the front will have
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s in north and west Georgia by
Thursday afternoon as surface high pressure builds over the
Appalachians. In addition to the drier air at the surface, warmer
air building in at the mid-levels should serve to limit thunderstorm
chances to 15 percent or less across north Georgia from Thursday
into the weekend. In central Georgia, thunderstorms will be
diurnally-driven over this timeframe, with PoPs forecast to be
between 25-30 percent. With decreased cloud cover and lower rain
chances, highs will climb back into the low to mid 90s on Thursday
and into the weekend.

As the weakening front sinks southward into the Gulf this weekend,
it is possible that a surface could develop in the baroclinic zone
in the vicinity of the front late Saturday or Sunday, which could
then tap into the warm sea surface temperatures, intensify, and gain
tropical characteristics. The latest GFS solution remains more
ambitious about tropical development than the ECMWF, taking it
northeastward towards the Carolina coast by Monday. The development
of a tropical system would allow for more moisture return and higher
PoPs in the forecast area by Monday. However, at this time,
confidence is low as there remains little run to run consistency
with respect to this feature. The NHC has maintained a 20 percent
chance of tropical development over the next 7 days along the
eastern Gulf coast and southern Atlantic coast, though the potential
for tropical development will need to be watched closely as the week
goes on.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Low cigs (MVFR to IFR, possibly patchy LIFR) are likely to develop
again this morning with improvements anticipated between 14-15z.
Shra/tsra may develop as early as 16z but additional tsra expected
closer to 20-21z in association with an approaching front. Latest
guidance indicates -shra and sct tsra to persist after 00z, thus
exact timing of tsra remains uncertain. Low clouds and patchy fog
will be possible again Tuesday night. Light/VRB winds tonight will
pick up out of the W/SW at 4-8kts Tuesday. Gusts are likely to
accompany storms.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium confidence on low AM cigs and timing of tsra
High confidence on remaining elements

07

&&
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