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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
137 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid conditions will continue through Friday.

- Heat advisory continues and has been extended through
Tomorrow afternoon for central Georgia.

- Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon through the late
evening. There is a limited potential for damaging downburst
winds in the 40 to 50 mph range both days. Locally heavy
rainfall is also possible.

Cloudy conditions have been slow to clear today keeping temperatures
generally along the I85 corridor several degrees cooler than
previously forecast. This will have impacts through the rest of the
day including:

1.) Temperatures and Heat Indices will remain below previous
forecasts by several degrees in the area most impacted by cloud
cover. These areas may struggle to reach heat advisory criteria.
Central and far northwest Georgia are most likely to reach heat
indices of at least 105 today due to less morning coverage.
Temperatures could be impacted through tomorrow with increased cloud
cover tomorrow morning as well.

2.) Thunderstorm chances have decreased across the cloud covered
area for this afternoon compared to NBM guidance. PoPs were reduced
from 60%+ to 30-40% for much of the area. Convection will likely be
focused along the edge of cloud shield near the GA AL border, E-W
just north of Columbus and Macon, and in far North Georgia.
Thunderstorm chances may be delayed from previous forecasts which
has stretched the timing of thunderstorm/shower potential. No
widespread or organized severe is expected at this time, though
isolated strong storms remain possible mostly in central and far
north Georgia. Slow moving thunderstorms and high PWATs continue to
pose a localized flooding threat. Hyper-locallized precipitation
amounts could range from 1-3" with most seeing less than 0.5".

Temperatures area expected to once again approach heat advisory
criteria, especially in central georgia, tomorrow afternoon. A heat
advisory remains in effect for this area through 00z Thursday.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid conditions continue Friday.

- Much cooler and unsettled conditions expected over the weekend
into early next week, with daily thunderstorms and locally
heavy rainfall.

Hot and humid conditions linger into Friday as Georgia remains
under the grasp of a ridge sitting over Florida, while troughing
and an associated cold front starts to push into the Tennessee
Valley late in the day. Heat index values will yet again peak in
the 100-108F range, with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms kicking off during the afternoon and evening hours.
Depending on the timing of the front, we could see strong to
severe storms along it as it pushes through, with damaging winds
as a primary threat.

Following the cold front passing through late Friday and
overnight into Saturday morning, temperatures will cool off
significantly for the weekend and into early next week. With the
front stalling out somewhere near the GA/FL border, moisture and
convergence pooled over the area will support numerous showers
and thunderstorms each day this weekend. A localized flood threat
is possible, but the severe weather threat is low.

Conditions will trend drier and warmer (back to near normal)
early next week as troughing becomes more entrenched over the
eastern US. We can still expect isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each day.
Culver

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Scattered thunderstorms will remain an aviation hazard in north
Georgia through 11Z today. Storms may produce visibility or
ceiling impacts at the Atlanta area TAF sites and KAHN. Patchy
low ceilings (400-1200 ft AGL) or fog are possible between 10Z and
14Z today. Thunderstorm activity should return between 17Z today
and 04Z Friday. All of the regional TAF sites may be impacted at
some point during this period. Winds will primarily be from the
southwest (220-280 degrees) at 4 to 9 kt today.


//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Moderate confidence in thunderstorms between 06Z and 08Z today.
Moderate confidence in a storm between 18Z and 03Z today, low
confidence on any finer storm timing.
High confidence in the wind outlook until 20Z, then moderate
confidence.
Moderate confidence in the ceiling and visibility forecasts.

Albright

&&
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