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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
734 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Key Messages:

- A Heat Advisory continues for central and eastern Georgia
through 8 PM this evening, followed by another Heat Advisory
from 11 AM to 8 PM on Friday.

- Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected
today and Friday. A few severe storms will be possible on
Friday, which could be capable of producing strong downburst
winds.

High temperatures this afternoon are expected to range from 92-98
degrees along and south of the I-20 corridor. Combined with
dewpoints in the mid 70s, heat index values are forecast to once
again reach 105 in portions of central and east Georgia. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM EDT as a result. Scattered
diurnally-driven thunderstorms have begun to develop over the last
couple of hours. This afternoon and evening, broad mid and upper
level troughing will dig southward into the Tennessee Valley region,
which will provide some additional lift, allowing for more numerous
storms across the north and west portions of the forecast area. With
SBCAPE values increasing to between 3000-3500 J/kg, a few of these
storms could become strong and capable of producing frequent
lightning and gusty winds. Furthermore, with precipitable water
values between 1.8 and 2.2 inches, stronger storms could also
produce locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding if strong
storms occur over a common area.

The axis of the trough will continue to advance towards the forecast
area on Friday. An associated cold front will push into the far
northern tier during the morning. The progression of the front will
be slow, and it is not expected to reach the I-20 corridor before
the peak heating hours. As such, highs are forecast to rise into the
low to mid 90s once again. Increasing atmospheric moisture ahead of
the frontal system will also nudge dewpoints and PWATs higher on
Friday. As such, heat index values reaching 105 degrees will warrant
one more Heat Advisory in portions of east-central Georgia (along
and south of a rough line from Cordele to Macon to Washington),
which will be in effect from 11 AM until 8 PM. More widespread
thunderstorms are expected on Friday afternoon due to a combination
of forcing ahead of the cold front and strong destabilization (2000-
3000 J/kg) with daytime heating. In spite of weak 0-1 km shear less
than 20 kts, strong SBCAPE, DCAPE near 1000 J/kg, and PWATs over 2
inches will support strong, precip-loaded downdrafts and cold pool
development. This should combine with the ambient conditions to
produce several loosely organized storm clusters, which could a few
severe thunderstorms with wind gusts up to 60 mph. While the severe
thunderstorm threat will largely be in the afternoon and evening,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue ahead of the cold
front overnight as the front continues to move southward through the
area.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Key Messages:

- Sweet relief, temperatures this weekend below normal with highs
reaching only the low to mid 80s. Lows in the 60s possible.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances high nearly every day, peaking
each afternoon.

Some very much welcomed relief this weekend as the cold front
settles somewhere over central Georgia Saturday. High temperatures
will likely struggle to get much higher than 80 north of the
front. Areas south of the front will see temps up into the mid
80s. Lows will be moderated slightly by moist conditions and
widespread precipitation chances, however we could still see the
first 60s in a while.

Precipitation chances will be higher through the weekend with the
stationary frontal boundary somewhere over central Georgia. The
greatest precip will likely be focused along the front, however
exactly where this may be remains in question. Several days of
locally heavy rainfall could pose a flood risk, however this will be
dependent on training convection. Speaking of convection, models
seem adamant that widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms
will be the main mode. However, given the cooler conditions
thunderstorm chances will probably be lower than indicated by NBM.
Would recommend holding for CAMs to evaluate extended lightning
risk.

Conditions dry out slightly through next week with PoPs falling more
to 30-40% peaks each afternoon and alongside quick moving and weak
shortwaves. Temperatures could see a slightly higher diurnal swing up
to the mid 80s and back down to the upper 60s by mid week.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Sct SHRA/TSRA will be possible at AHN/ATL area sites through
around 01Z with gradual lessening in coverage with potential for
activity to linger at CSG/MCN through 02Z. Thereafter, largely VFR
conditions are expected though patchy MVFR cigs are possible,
mainly north of ATL sites. Additional sct SHRA/TSRA expected
Friday afternoon, largely after 19Z. Winds will remain W to NW
with speeds 3-7 kts.


//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on morning cigs.
High confidence on other elements.

RW

&&
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