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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
237 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Key Messages:

- Areas of patchy fog could occur in central Georgia between 4
AM and 9 AM Sunday.

- Isolated thunderstorms could be a hazard for outdoor
activities in the north Georgia mountains between 1 PM and 7 PM
Sunday.

Rest of Today & Tonight:

The area of low pressure that created an unusual degree of
uncertainty in the forecast over the last 48 hours was centered near
Pensacola this afternoon. It has taken the more southerly track
advertised the the GEFS guidance, largely due to the more southerly
positioning of a stationary front. This has allowed more sunshine
than expected in north Georgia today, and temperatures have
responded by climbing into the 80s. For areas south of a line from
Columbus to Macon thicker cloud cover and rain showers have limited
temperatures to the 70s. Significant clearing is unlikely in this
area, so afternoon highs should remain below 80 degrees. A few light
rain showers could pop up across north and central Georgia this
afternoon. Thunder is unlikely though due to a lack of instability
and any rainfall should be brief in nature. Most locals can expect
to remain dry through sunset.

This mornings rainfall, light winds and clearing skies could promote
some patchy fog development over central Georgia tonight. If fog
forms it would most likely occur between 4 AM and 9 AM Sunday. A
Dense Fog Advisory probably won`t be required (< 10% chance).

Sunday:

As today`s area of low pressure drifts into the Atlantic and a
surface high settles in over the Great Lakes, a pseudo wedge will
develop and bring northeast winds to Georgia. This will lead to mild
and mostly dry weather in Georgia on Sunday. Expect morning lows in
the mid 60s and afternoon highs in the lower 80s. The exception to
the dry conditions may be the north Georgia mountains. Weakly
convergent surface flow (northwest surface flow coming from
Tennessee and northeast flow from the wedge) should combine with
differential heating over higher terrain to produce a favorable
environment for afternoon convection. Moisture won`t be overly
impressive, but with convective temperatures in the 70s, surface
dewpoints in the near 60 should be sufficient. The peak time window
for any convection should be between 1 PM and 7 PM. Some lightning
could occur, though marginal lapse rates (< 5.5 C/km between 700-500
mb) and elevated freezing levels suggest limited coverage. Those
participating in outdoor activities over the holiday weekend should
monitor the lightning threat.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Key Messages:

- A system moves across the state Wednesday with increased rain
chances, but otherwise mostly dry conditions through next week.

- Slightly below normal temperatures through next week.

Early next week, deep mid-level troughing will remain parked over
the Eastern US, resulting in persistent low to mid-level NW flow
across the state. Surface high pressure beneath the Eastern US
trough will keep a shallow NE flow (similar to a wedge) over the
area. Overall this setup will lead to mostly cloudy and slightly
cooler than normal conditions, with enough atmospheric moisture
(PWAT values 1-1.5") to support only isolated rain chances each
day.

Around mid-week, a stout mid-level shortwave and associated
surface low will be dropping along the backside of the trough
across the Lower Mississippi Valley. As the system approaches the
area, low to mid-level flow will turn out of the south, bringing
in a surge of warm and moisture with PWAT values climbing up to
1.75-2". This moisture combined with large scale forcing from the
system will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the
best chances across central GA. Depending on the timing of this
system, we could even see some strong to severe storms, though
confidence in any severe threat is very low at this time. The
cold front associated with this system will rapidly push through
behind it, leading to the return of a dry and cool airmass
through the end of next week and into the weekend.

Culver

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Isolated showers will occur in north and central Georgia through
03Z Sunday, impacts are unlikely (<15% chance) at the TAF sites.
Areas of patchy fog or low ceilings (200-2000) are possible in
central Georgia between 06Z and 14Z Sunday. Winds will continue to
be from the east (060-120 degrees) through 00Z, then variable
winds are anticipated between 00Z and 14Z Sunday. Northeast
(050-100 degrees) winds in the 4 to 12 kt range are expected
between 14Z Sunday and 00Z Monday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence in all elements of the KATL TAF.

Albright

&&
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