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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
659 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025

Key Messages:

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the region this
afternoon and tonight.

- Cool, cloudy and rainy conditions are expected on Saturday.

Today:

A weak shortwave tracking through the Southeast and lingering
outflow boundaries should provide the lift necessary for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this morning in east central Georgia.
MUCAPE values in the 500 to 1250 J/kg range and effective shear
of 20 to 30 kt could lead to a couple of stronger storms, but in
general the risk for severe weather is low. Given estimated mid
level lapse rates in the 6.5 to 7.0 C/km range, the primary
concern with any more robust storms should be marginally severe
hail (dimes to quarters). The overall potential for storm should
decline after 9 AM as the shortwave moves east and weak subsidence
sets in.

Diurnal heating this afternoon may lead to additional isolated
thunderstorm development between 3 PM and 9 PM today. Most locations
probably won`t see storm activity during this period due to the
isolated nature of the storms. Terrain in north Georgia and
lingering outflow boundaries from morning convection will be key
features to monitor for storm formation. In either case, the area
with the best environment for any stronger convection looks to be
east central Georgia, where the 00Z HREF suggests ~1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE with the diurnal heating this afternoon and 0-6 km shear of
~25kt. The primary threats with any storms in this area would be
marginally severe hail or wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range.

Tonight into Saturday:

This period should feature a deepening upper level low along the
Gulf coast and a surface high over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. A
cold front associated with the surface high should drive cooler and
drier air into Georgia. If rain falls into this cooler airmass
Saturday afternoon it could lead evaporative cooling and limit
high temperatures to the lower 60s. If not, highs may reach the
lower 70s. Afternoon highs in the 60s would be 9 to 14 degrees
below seasonal averages. Shower and thunderstorm activity should
increase in the region tonight and remain with us on Saturday.
Rain totals near an inch are possible in central Georgia by
Saturday night. A deep layer of dry air and a greater distance
from the favorable southerly flow ahead of the upper low should
lead to lighter rain amounts in the mountains of north Georgia
(< 0.25 inches). If you have outdoor plans Saturday, anticipated
cloudy, cool and rainy conditions.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025

Key Messages:

- Multiple days of cloudy and rainy weather are anticipated to
start the workweek.

- Isolated river flooding concerns may develop by Wednesday.

The upper level low over the Gulf coast should remain nearly
stationary on Sunday, then it will move northeast at a painfully
slow clip between Monday and Wednesday. As this process occurs
the low will track through Georgia leading to multiple days of
rainfall, cloudy skies and below average temperatures. The start
to the upcoming workweek looks like one of those dreary periods
where coffee becomes a coveted commodity. Widespread rainfall
totals in the 1 to 3 inch range are expected between Sunday and
Wednesday, with localized amounts of 4 to 5 inches possible. The
higher totals are favored over central and east central Georgia
where sandy soils and drier conditions should hinder any river
flooding potential. That being said it wouldn`t be surprising to
see a couple of rivers approach flood stage by Wednesday.
Thunderstorms are also possible during this period, however the
overall severe threat remains low on any given day.

Sunday should be the coolest day during this stretch, with
afternoon highs in the 60s and lower 70s. From there temperatures
should rise by 4 to 7 degrees each day, eventually returning to
widespread values in the upper 80s on Thursday.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025

Areas of dense fog will occur in the mountains of north Georgia
through 14Z today. Pockets of LIFR/IFR ceilings are also possible
in the mountains and northeast Georgia through 14Z. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but the odds of a storm
directly impacting a TAF site are low (< 20%). Any storm impacts
at an airport should be brief. Winds will be from the northwest
today, then they will transition to eastelry between 06Z and 12Z
Saturday. More widespread rainfall should also move into north and
central Georgia after 06Z Saturday.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence in all aspects of the forecast through 00Z this
Saturday.
Moderate confidence in the timing of rainfall onset Saturday.
Low confidence in the timing of the transition from northwest to
northeast winds between 01Z and 07Z this evening.

Albright

&&
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