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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
243 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

At a glance:

- Tropical moisture tomorrow will gradually increase the chance for
showers and thunderstorms across the south and central part of the
CWA.

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again tomorrow,
primarily across the southern parts of the CWA.

A tropical low along the Atlantic coast will slowly come on shore
today bringing rain and a few isolated thunderstorms to areas of
central and southern Georgia. Severe weather is not anticipated and
rainfall totals look to range from an inch to less than a tenth of
an inch across the metro area. It will bring a change of airmass
with it resulting in more active humid weather. The overcast skies
and cooling effect of the rain will keep temperatures running a few
degrees below normal today with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again tomorrow, though
focused more on the southern end of the CWA as the low pressure
lifts north and east along the coast. Temperatures will be in the
low to mid 80s and will gradually begin to increase again as we go
into the long term.

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Key Messages:

- Rain chances effectively every afternoon over the next 7
days, with potential for severe thunderstorms Friday through
Saturday.

- Slightly warmer than average for the remainder of the week,
then cooler latter half of the period.

Moving into Friday and the start of the extended range, the coastal
surface low that brought us several days of patchy showers and
thunderstorms will be making its way off of the Eastern Seaboard. As
a result, a portion of the day Friday is likely to be mostly dry,
owing to retreating moisture and tranquil, quasi-zonal flow rounding
the northern edge of a mid-level ridge. This reprieve looks to be
short-lived, however, as a shortwave traversing the aforementioned
mid-level flow above the Plains will support the development of a
southeastward-propagating mesoscale convective system (MCS). It
remains to be seen how the MCS is maintained as it encroaches upon
northwest Georgia beginning early evening Friday, but the Storm
Prediction Center has outlooked much of the northern half of the
forecast area in a Slight (level 2 out of 5) Risk to capture the
potential for impacts if it does hold together. We remain just on
the cusp of higher resolution model guidance being available, but
ensemble guidance suggests modest instability lingering overnight
(on the order of 300-700 J/kg, and perhaps more) on top of 25-30kts
of deep layer shear -- nontrivial to support sustenance of
intensity. If a line of strong to severe convection picks its way
through portions of the state overnight Friday into Saturday, the
primary concerns would be isolated damaging wind gusts and large
hail.

The combination of any leading outflow boundaries and the potential
for ongoing convection as diurnal heating begins during the day
Saturday means some reinvigoration of severe storm potential is
likely through Saturday afternoon. The GFS ensemble progs as much as
a 50-80% chance of instability exceeding 2000 J/kg in the vicinity
of the line of thunderstorms (roughly across the midsection of the
state), sufficient to support a 15% Risk for Day 4 (equivalent to a
Slight Risk) across north and central Georgia. Similar to Friday,
the primary concern would be for damaging wind gusts and large hail
within the strongest pockets of the quasi-line/clusters of storms.

Unfortunately, the chances for rain don`t stop there. Between
stalled fronts, lingering outflow boundaries, and passing trough
axes, chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will then
linger through Tuesday. Multiple waves of high-PWAT airmasses (as
high as 1.5-2") will support efficient rainfall producers even if
storms are patchy in nature. WPC has a sliver of north Georgia in a
Marginal (level 1 out of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Saturday,
and a much larger Marginal Risk encompassing the majority of north
and central Georgia on Sunday. 24-hr flash flood guidance is
currently on the order of 3.5-4.5" areawide, so not expecting
widespread flooding concerns at this time, but localized issues are
possible in instances of training/backbuilding or particularly heavy
showers or thunderstorms.

Highs will be a few degrees warmer than average Friday and Saturday,
topping out in the mid-80s to mid-90s. Sunday and beyond, the
forecast area will be post-frontal, doing little to properly dry us
out, but contributing to highs slightly below average -- in the
upper-70s to near 90. Overnight lows will be fairly uniformly in the
upper 50s to lower 70s.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Showers will gradually expand across Georgia this afternoon. A few
rumbles of thunder are possible after 18Z but confidence is very
low. Winds will be out of the ESE around 10kts. -SHRA will continue
to be off and on before coming to an end sometime around 02Z. A FEW
LIFR clouds are possible during the overnight hours.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium on TSRA.
High on all other elements.

Vaughn

&&
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