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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
646 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Key Messages:

- Thunderstorms remain possible each afternoon though will remain
isolated in nature. PoPs 15 to 30%.

- Climbing temperatures will see heat indices climb once again
with many seeing values of 100 to 105 through the end of the week.

The disturbance in the gulf continues to drift westward and should
have limited to no further impacts on our area for the foreseeable
future. Upper level ridging will continue to build over the coming
days bringing clearer weather (though still isolated thunderstorm
chance) and increasing temperatures. No significant airmass change
is expected any time soon, so dewpoints likely wont changes much
from the 70s. Models have over-performed resent dewpoint so future
forecasts will likely need to adjust for this. Highs today and
tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 90s for all but the far north
and northwest portions of the state. Resultant heat indices will be
in the 100 to 105 with some seeing values in excess of 105 for brief
periods of time.

Precipitation and thunderstorm chances will be between 15 and 30
percent for most. Far northeast Georgia and our southwestern
counties have PoPs closer to 45%, where there is either remnant
influence from the Gulf low or weakened ridge suppression up north.
No widespread or organized severe weather is expected at this time,
though some thunderstorms may be capable of gusty winds, locally
heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.
SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Key Messages:

- Hot this weekend. Heat indices in the triple digits in many
locations. Heat advisories looking likely at this point, especially
in east central Georgia.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon PoPs most days. Best chances of
rain and storms look like they may be towards the beginning of next
week.

Forecast:

The weekend is looking pretty toasty and will be the main focus for
the forecast. Subtropical ridge will be basically parked right over
the top of the Southeast, bringing the heat, and while some isolated
afternoon storms will be possible, suppression from the broad
sinking motion of the ridge looks like it is going to win out in
most locations, limited diurnally driven convection chances to
mostly isolated to scattered, with best chances across far north
Georgia and the mountains where terrain influences will aid in
lift for storms. Highs in the mid to upper 90s in many places
combined with dewpoints in or near the 70s will send heat indices
well into the triple digits. The best target for a potential heat
advisory continues to be east central Georgia (> 80%), but would
not be surprised if this ends up needing to be expanded towards
the metro (~50%), especially by Sunday which looks to be cooking,
but not in the "cool" way.

The beginning of next week is starting to look a bit interesting.
Both Euro and GFS suites are keying in on broad trough across the
Northeast that has trough axis/embedded shortwave swing through the
NE corridor Sunday into Monday. This drives a front into the area,
as well as high pressure within the upper level convergence behind
the trough. Surface high parks over the Appalachians, and we see
signs of a summer wedge type pattern. However, surface high isn`t
terribly potent when looking in the deterministic versions of the
model suites, so it seems to drive a weaker boundary down this way.
But even with a weak boundary, given the very moist airmass in
place, that may be enough convergence and lift to get some decent
storms going. We see an uptick in PoPs, especially across the
eastern part of the state from storms forming within these
environments across the various ensembles. Some decent MLCAPE is
present - main missing ingredient would be shear. Certainly bears
some watching in the coming days. And we may be hoping for some rain
or storms, because otherwise the "feels like" temps in parts of
Georgia may be approaching that 110 degree mark in some areas. Pick
your poison this time of year - it`s either stormy or hot.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

VFR through period. Winds nearly due south becoming SW later this
afternoon. Isolated tsra possible, PoPs remain below 20 percent for
metro. Higher probability near CSG, 40 to 50 percent. Cigs stay VFR
Thursday night, except for some spotty low cigs in far western
Georgia. No impacts to metro expected at this time.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence cigs Friday morning.
High confidence all other elements.

SM

&&
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