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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
752 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

(This afternoon through Wednesday)

Key Messages:

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon ahead of
the arrival of a frontal boundary.

- The frontal boundary will result in an increase in
thunderstorms, and storms will likely last into the
overnight - possibly to midnight local or beyond,
particularly over central GA.

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe
thunderstorms through tonight, with the greatest risk being
for damaging wind gusts to 40-60 mph.

- Localized flash flooding in addition to nuisance flooding is
likely to accompany some storms.

Popup thunderstorms have begun to develop across northern and
central GA. This activity will continue through the afternoon, with
increasing intensity and coverage. A frontal boundary is approaching
from the northwest; this will bring a further increase in
thunderstorm activity. A line of thunderstorms is anticipated to
accompany the frontal boundary, which will last through the evening
hours into tonight. Thunderstorms are possible through around
midnight local, and possibly later, particularly over portions of
central GA, where they could linger through around 3 AM EDT.
Damaging winds will be the main threat with these thunderstorms; the
high freezing level (of around 15k ft) results in a decreased risk
for hail compared to gusty winds. Precipitable water in this
mornings 12Z KFFC sounding was 1.96 inches, with moisture maintained
through all levels. Because of this, thunderstorms are likely to
produce significant rainfall. Flash flooding and local nuisance
flooding is possible, and WPC has a slight risk (level 2 of 4) of
excessive rainfall over north Georgia into the Atlanta metro area,
with a marginal risk (level 1) elsewhere across the area.

A drying trend begins during the day tomorrow. Precipitable water
values are forecast to fall below climatological normals over most
of GA. There will be a significantly decreased threat for
thunderstorms tomorrow. However, some lingering moisture is
anticipated over central into eastern GA, where isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will be possible. A few isolated
thunderstorms will also remain possible northward into the Atlanta
metro during the afternoon tomorrow, due to a combination of daytime
heating and lingering moisture.

CRS

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 117 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

- Gradual warming trend through the end of the week

- Precip chances very low this weekend, increase Sunday/Monday

- Mid to upper 90 Heat Indices on tap for 4th weekend

Models in good agreement on the overall pattern through day 5 or so.
Ensemble means relatively close Thursday through Saturday depicting
a strengthening mid level ridge over the mid MS valley by Friday
and a remnant TUT low over Florida...which coincidentally is
responsible for the NHC 30pct area on their outlook. The SE region
will be under the influence of both the dry NW flow on the
eastern periphery of the ridge and the dry side of the TUT low. At
the same time 700mb heights will be slowly creeping upward. End
result will be a drying trend as well as a warming trend with
temps 3-5 deg above average Thursday through Saturday and very
low...but not zero pops. i.e. 10 pct or less.

Day 5 and beyond we start to see some divergence in the model
solutions regarding how it handles the developing ridge to the west
and the TUT low to the south. One camp lifts the low to the North
Northeast into GA with ridging breaking down over the SE US rather
quickly. The other camp, majority, build the ridge over the top of
the low and it slips westward along the Gulf coast and maintaining a
fairly strong mid level ridge overhead and anchored along the
eastern conus. NBM guidance does introduce pops back into the
forecast for Sunday and Monday largely a result of the spread in
those 2 solns...but the reality is it will likely either be closer
to zero or closer to 60 by then. Hence, the forecast for Sunday
onward is of lower confidence.

As for the the NHC/tropical outlook...based on the latest model
guidance, the probabilities for development look less likely in the
NE Gulf, but remain the same on the Atlantic side just off the SE
coast. Any development would be tied to that TUT low and likely to
be slow to occur given the nature of development near such features.

KS

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 751 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

TSRA remains in the area and will likely continue to threaten KATL
until after 02Z. Wind gusts up to 30kts are possible. Some IFR CIGS
are likely after 08Z, though cigs should begin to improve after 14Z.
A few showers are possible tomorrow after 18Z, but they are low
confidence at this time and will depend on how far south the front
falls. Winds will become NW during the overnight hours at 4-8kts.


//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Medium to High on all elements

Vaughn

&&
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