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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
207 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Key Messages:

- Isolated thunderstorms will continue to be a potential hazard
for outdoor activities in the north Georgia mountains through 9
PM today.

- Mild and sunny weather is anticipated for Labor Day.

Rest of Today & Tonight:

A zone of favorable surface convergence was combining with diurnal
heating to produce and agitated cumulus field in north Georgia as of
2 PM. A few showers and isolated storms were occurring within this
zone. Instability for the convection to work with is limited (MUCAPE
between 250-750 J/kg), but differential heating over the terrain and
convergence along outflow boundaries should continue to provide the
low level support needed for convection through this evening.
Lightning will continue to be a potential hazard outdoor activities
through 9 PM. However, it shouldn`t be widespread due to vertically
challenged CAPE profiles that are largely below the freezing level.
Rain free conditions and plenty of sunshine will continue along and
south of Interstate 85 into this evening.

A few showers could linger in the mountains of north Georgia
overnight, but in general most locations will remain dry. The mid
level cloud cover associated with the shower chances will hinter
radiational cooling. This will allow overnight lows to to be fairly
uniform across north and central Georgia (between 60 and 65 degree).

Sunday:

Wedging and northeasterly flow will lead to mild weather and dry
conditions for most of north and central Georgia on Labor Day. Much
like today, there could be some diurnally driven showers in the
mountains where differential heating and weakly convergent flow will
lead to some afternoon convection. The lightning risk with these any
showers will be low, and severe weather or flooding are not
expected. Afternoon highs temperatures will be in the lower 80s for
most, with 70s occurring at elevations above 2500 ft in the
mountains.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms Wed/Thu, but otherwise mostly dry
conditions through next weekend.

- Below normal temperatures continue through next weekend.

The long term will start off with continued mostly dry and cool
conditions on Tuesday as deep mid-level troughing remains parked
over the Eastern US. On Wednesday, a stout mid-level shortwave
and associated surface low will be dropping along the backside of
the trough across the Lower Mississippi Valley. As the system
approaches the area, low to mid-level flow will turn out of the
south, bringing in a surge of warm and moisture with PWAT values
climbing up to 1.5-2". This moisture combined with large scale
forcing from the system will lead to scattered showers and
thunderstorms into Thursday. Depending on the timing of this
system, we could even see some strong to severe storms, though
confidence in any severe threat is very low at this time. The
cold front associated with this system looks to push through by
Thursday night, leading to the return of a mostly dry and cool
airmass for the end of the week and throughout the weekend.

Culver

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue in
north Georgia through 03Z Monday. There is a small chance (< 10%)
of impacts to the Atlanta area TAF sites or AHN during this time.
Winds will be from the east or northeast through 00Z Tuesday.
Gusts near 20 mph may occur between 14Z and 23Z Monday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence of all elements of the KATL TAF.

Albright

&&
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