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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1222 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1216 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

- Light rain showers will occur this morning, with accumulations
in the 0.01 to 0.15 inch range expected.

- Seasonable temperatures and dry weather should prevail between
Tuesday and Friday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Considerations for Today:

A shortwave cruising through the region will bring a quick round of
light precipitation to Georgia this morning. For most areas,
including the Atlanta Metro, the bulk of the rain should fall prior
to sunrise. This may limit any impacts to the Monday morning
commute. Yesterday`s evening sounding only had a PW value of 0.71
inches, and the trends in the SPC mesoscale analysis show only
minute moisture increases (to 0.8 to 1.00 inches) as the rain
moves in. When combined with the limited duration of the rainfall
(2 to 5 hours) this lack of moisture will favor very light
rainfall totals. Our going forecast suggest amounts in the 0.01
to 0.15 inch range.

As the rain comes to an end a cold front will push rapidly
through Georgia. Northwest winds will develop behind the front,
leading to drier weather. Occasional winds gusts in the 18 to 24
mph range are possible this afternoon. A push of drier air above
850 mb may help produce some sun in western and central Georgia
this afternoon. Meanwhile across eastern and northern portions of
the state more prevalent moisture in the surface to 850 mb layer
should favor mostly cloudy skies today. High temperatures today
should range from the upper 40s in the mountains to the mid 50 in
central Georgia (3 to 8 degrees below average).

Tonight & Tuesday:

CAM guidance wants to push a weak wedge front into eastern Georgia
tonight. Weak lift and convergence along this boundary, and
lingering low level moisture could allow some patchy fog to form
tonight. A Dense Fog Advisory appears unlikely (< 10% chance).
Aside from this the weather should be benign through Tuesday. Lows
in the upper 20s and lower 30s will occur Tuesday morning, with
temperatures rising to around 50 degrees in the afternoon. No
rainfall is anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Forecast:

We pick up the long term forecast on Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning with a potent shortwave embedded in the polar side of the
upper level jet digging into midwest and Great Lakes. Initial front
will be driven towards the area by this system that looks to be
mostly dry. Front looks to stall somewhere within the CWA Wednesday
into Wednesday night. We`ll have a relatively warm day on Wednesday
with highs in the upper 50s and 60s, cooling into the 30s
overnight.

Going forward, very broad trough builds in over the eastern CONUS.
Weak impulse within this may bring a chance at some showers, but
provided the ensembles are not underdispersed, we`ve seen a
significant shift through the day towards a more dry solution for
the area Thursday night into Friday. This system looks like it will
struggle to have any connection to moisture that has been pushed
south thanks to a weak surface low that quickly falls apart.

Going into the weekend, some building uncertainty around just how
cold temps might get. Model solutions for the afternoon and evening
have trended towards a solution that doesn`t dig yet another strong
impulse within the large trough quite as far south. Temps get cold
(20s overnight), but we may be able to avoid the teens overnight
with a solution like that. Eventually the strong surface high
responsible for the cold air is able to build into the area, but it
stays a bit further north keeping the core of the colder air away
from us. Want to emphasize there is still quite the spread on this -
NBM temperature spread throughout the entire weekend for the 10th vs
90th percentile is 10-20 degrees for the entire state of Georgia
into Monday. Either way, cold air is going to make its way in, it`s
just a matter of just how cold that air will be when it arrives.

&&
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