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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
322 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Key Messages:

- Isolated showers across north Georgia this afternoon. Another
round possible later tonight into tomorrow morning, with a few
rumbles of thunder possible.

- Warming trend continues with highs in the mid to upper 80s today
and upper 80s to 90s in some locations tomorrow.

Forecast:

Persistent wedge that has been in place across the CWA for the last
several days in finally beginning to break down across north and
central Georgia. Weak vortmax that is embedded in the upper level
trough over the eastern CONUS is rotating through the CWA and
responsible for the showers that have been moving across north
Georgia this morning into the afternoon. Terrain is also helping a
bit with lift, and won`t rule out seeing a few rumbles of thunder
out of one or two of these that become a bit more convective in
nature as they continue to push to the east for the next few hours.
Could also see a few showers pass over the metro, with some
development occurring along a moisture axis in NW parts of the metro
already. Otherwise, temperatures are warming across the area and
highs should top out in the mid to upper 80s for all but the higher
elevations of NE GA this afternoon.

Tonight, bigger upper level wave will dig into the midwest, rapidly
deepen into upper level low, and become increasingly positively
tilted into tomorrow. This will drive moisture return into the
system up through the CWA that will bring an increased chance of
some showers and storms overnight tonight and into the morning
hours, primarily across northern Georgia. Some hires guidance does
bring a few things as far south as the metro during the morning into
the afternoon. Did not introduce PoPs during the afternoon for the
metro, but if trends continue to show possible storms or showers,
this may occur in a later forecast update or package.

With the CAD gone and moisture return from the Gulf, things will
start heating back up tomorrow. Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s
and even a few 90s across central Georgia. Lows will also start
creeping back up with the increased moisture, back into the mid to
upper 60s by tomorrow night.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Nothing to change from the excellent discussion issued this
morning. Little has changed within the ensemble guidance, with
uncertainty still remaining on the timing and southward extent of
the frontal passage later next week.

Lusk


Previous Discussion
Issued at 237 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Key Messages:

- Rain chances remain low (~20% or less) until early next week,
when a slight uptick in coverage of showers/storms is
expected.

- A warming trend heading into the weekend, followed by a cool-down
early next week.

Discussion:

The long term period starts off on Thursday night with ensemble
guidance depicting a stout, sprawling low pressure system positioned
just north of the Great Lakes over Canada, with cyclonically-curved
mid-/upper-level flow over much of the central and eastern CONUS.
While moisture is expected to increase heading into the weekend,
guidance does not depict development of a surface low south of the
parent low much farther north. The result here in Georgia will be
weakly-forced, isolated showers and storms at most, with much of the
area likely remaining rain-free through the weekend. High
temperatures will gradually increase heading into the weekend, with
lower 90s to mid-90s on Friday and Saturday across much of the area.

Ensemble guidance indicates a cold front passage Sunday through
Monday, which is forecast to drop high temperatures into the lower
80s during the first half of next week. Moisture return and ascent
along/near the front continue to support 20% to 30% PoPs during this
time frame, although there is uncertainty regarding how far south
the front moves before steering flow becomes parallel to it. There
are no strong signals in model guidance for severe weather (mid-
/upper-level flow appears relatively weak and instability parameters
are meager) but a storm or two will be possible each day, especially
if any disturbances develop aloft amid the troughing pattern and
support localized increases in shear and/or instability.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

VFR through TAF period, though some SHRA/TSRA chances present.
SHRA are noted to west of RYY and FTY this afternoon. These may
progress near or across these airports with very minor rain
accumulations and impacts over next few hours. Otherwise, SCT cu
field is in place and will be through evening. Winds have moved to
west side or gone VRB at most all metro TAF sites. These are
light, 3-7 kts. Tonight, winds will go calm to very light
(generally < 4 kts), and best west again tomorrow at 4-8 kts. No
cig/vsby impacts expected. Some uncertainty around SHRA impacts
tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Leaning towards the afternoon
for any impacts with this TAF issuance.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium SHRA/TSRA timing, high all others.

Lusk

&&
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