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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1230 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

- Areas of dense fog will occur through 10 AM this morning,
especially in low lying areas.

- Significant rainfall is not anticipated in the region through
at least the middle of next week.

- Gusty winds will occur this afternoon, peak gusts in the 20 to
35 mph range are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 147 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Forecast Considerations through Thursday:

Through 10 AM today the main forecast challenge revolves around the
potential for fog in central Georgia. Fair skies and light winds in
the region have led to strong radiational cooling and areas of
ground fog development since 11 PM Tuesday. Satellite shows that the
fog is most concentrated along the river valleys, but it is showing
up in other locations as well (per observations). Confidence in the
continuation of fog through around 9 AM is moderate, with the main
limiting factor being the thick deck of high clouds moving in from
the northwest. This cloud layer should hinder the radiational
cooling once it arrives and this may pause or erode the ground fog.
At this time a Dense Fog Advisory for central Georgia is unlikely
(33% chance) due to the increasing cloud potential and shallow
nature of the fog. None the less, travelers should use caution this
morning, as low lying areas may see rapid reductions in visibility.

Gusty westerly winds will develop today ahead of and approaching
cold front. Progged winds of 35 to 50 kt in the 850 mb layer this
afternoon should favor gusts in the 20 to 35 mph range at the
surface, and it wouldn`t be surprising to see a couple of gusts over
35 mph at the more exposed sites (like ATL). Because gusts near or
in excess of 35 mph should be limited in scope a Wind Advisory is
not planned for today (20% chance of issuance). The winds should
turn northwesterly overnight as the cold front passes, and the winds
may remain elevated (especially in north Georgia) through the
overnight hours.

Temperatures should surge into the upper 50s (north Georgia) and
lower 60s (central Georgia) today. A cooler continental airmass will
move into the region tonight. This will bring high temperatures down
by about 10 degrees on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 147 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

As the extended period begins on Thursday night, longwave troughing
will extend from southeast Canada southward along the Eastern
Seaboard. This troughing will advance slowly eastward into the
weekend, keeping northwesterly upper level flow in place across the
majority of the CONUS. Surface high pressure will also be positioned
over central Georgia and slowly moving east. With a dry airmass over
the area, combined with mostly clear skies and light winds, strong
radiational cooling can be expected through the overnight hours.
After Friday morning begins with low temperatures ranging from the
upper 20s in the far northeast mountains to the mid 30s in central
Georgia, the center of the surface high will move east of the state
during the daytime. Southwesterly low level flow on the back side of
the high will allow for gradual moisture return, with dewpoints
climbing from the 20s and low 30s to near 40 by Friday night. High
temperatures will also be on the rise under the high and with warm
advection from the Gulf, rising to the mid 50s to low 60s in north
Georgia and mid 60s in central Georgia on Friday afternoon.

Also on Friday, a surface low will movE across the Great Lakes
region, with a cold front extending from the low pushing into the
Tennessee Valley region by Friday night. A quick-hitting disturbance
will move southeastward through the jet as the front approaches far
north Georgia. Global model guidance indicates that increased
moisture ahead of this front could advance into north Georgia though
overall it appears that forcing associated with this disturbance
appears that will be weak. A few isolated showers could be possible
amid the increasing low level moisture if there is a sufficient mass
response. As a result, rain chances late Friday night through
Saturday will largely range from 5-15% across much of north and west
Georgia, though most areas will remain dry. High temperatures on
Saturday will range from the upper 50s in far north Georgia to near
70 in east-central Georgia.

There remains ample uncertainty in the forecast beginning on Sunday,
especially as it pertains to the progression of the cold front and a
strong Arctic surface high approaching from the northwest. With the
timing of the frontal passage trending slower, PoPs of 20-30%, are
forecast in north and west Georgia late Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Rain chances are then forecast to diminish with the front
weakening as it moves south and east into central Georgia. Rainfall
amounts ahead of the front appear to be negligible - at most about
0.10 inch in the far northern tier with even lesser amounts to the
south.

There is the potential for significantly colder air to set up
behind the front starting Sunday night into Monday, though the
extent of how much temperatures drop will depend on the movement of
the high`s center and the proximity of north/central Georgia to the
core of the coldest air. Thus, there remains a significant spread
among ensemble temperature guidance. Latest long range model
guidance is favoring a further southeastward detour of the high`s
center, through the Ohio Valley early Monday and towards the
Carolina coast by early Tuesday, which would favor a greater drop in
temperatures by Monday morning into Tuesday. However, guidance also
continues to indicate the weakening of the high as it moves
southeast, which would serve to moderate the airmass as it sets up
over the region. However, with little run to run consistency on the
position of the low, it`s tough to feel confident how much cooling
we`ll see early next week, and the evolution and track of this
Arctic high will need to be monitored.

&&
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