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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
524 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Key Messages:

- Heat will be the primary concern today and Thursday, and Heat
Advisories are in place for portions of north and central
Georgia both days.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected between noon and 11 PM
today and Thursday.

Lingering Heat Concerns Today & Thursday:

Heat, it has been the story and it will remain the main aspect of
the forecast through Friday. A Heat Advisory continues for most of
north and central Georgia through 8 PM today (mountains excluded).
An additional Heat Advisory has been issue for central Georgia on
Thursday. While temperatures will pull back some today, they will
remain sufficient when combined with dewpoints in the 70s to produce
widespread heat indices near 105 degrees this afternoon. Values
closer to 109 may occur in east central Georgia. The same general
conditions will persist into Thursday and this gave us enough
confidence to extend the Heat Advisory for central Georgia. Later
shifts may look at the need for a Heat Advisory for the Atlanta
Metro on Thursday, but right now the odds of one being issued are
less than 25% due to lower expected high temperatures on Thursday.

Thunderstorm Chances Today & Thursday:

A lingering surface trough and abundant heat and humidity will
provide the forcing and fuel for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
again today. Highlighting areas with the greatest potential for
storms in north and central Georgia is a challenge today. There may
be a slight preference for storm development in central Georgia near
the surface trough and lingering outflows from yesterday`s
convection. The mountains of north Georgia may also be a focal point
for more abundant activity due to topographic enhancements.
Realistically though, storms could pop up about anywhere between
noon and 11 PM, with 4 PM to 8 PM being the window of peak activity.
SBCAPE values in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, DCAPE values near 700
J/kg and a lack of appreciable shear suggest that the main threat
with any storms today will be isolated downburst winds. Where these
occur, gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range will be possible.
Precipitable water values over 2 inches should support localized
rain rates in the 2 to 3 inch per hour range. This occurred at our
office and in Athens yesterday in a similar environment. Flooding
should remain a limited threat though due to the isolated nature of
these higher amounts.

Diurnally driven thunderstorms should crop up again on Thursday. An
upper level trough nudging into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley may
enhance the degree of thunderstorm coverage over northern Georgia.
Realistically though storms could occur anywhere in the state during
the afternoon and evening hours. The main threat should again be
isolated downburst in the 40 to 50 mph range. Locally heavy rain
rates (2 to 3 inches per hour) will be possible again, and some
limited flooding threat may exists across north Georgia.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

At a glance:

- The weekend could see more widespread thunderstorms with some
locally heavy rainfall totals along Saturday`s front.

- Cooler temperatures are expected next weekend, but unsettled
weather in the afternoon will likely continue.

Heat and humidity will start off the long term. A weak upper level
trough will be the source of convection though for the areas as the
weekend begins. Storms on Friday afternoon could become strong to
severe as they fire along a slowly moving cold front that`s expected
to drape across the south east.

By Saturday the front is expected to stall across middle Georgia. As
a result, PoPs there continues to be elevated during the afternoon
as daytime heating gets things going. Behind the front however, cold
air damming down the appalachians will provide a much needed break
from storms as well as keep a lid on afternoon thunderstorms. The
trick in the forecast is determining how far south the front stalls.

A drier pattern establishes itself for most of the CWA by the start
of next week, with cooler temperatures (highs in the mid 80s) and
less total storm coverage. Overnight lows in the mid 70s Saturday`s
front will fall back into the 60s at the start of next week
generally giving the entire CWA a break.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Patchy fog and/or ceilings in the 300 to 1500 ft range will remain
possible in north and central Georgia through 14Z today. After
14Z prevailing ceilings should be VFR (3000 to 5000 ft AGL)
through at least 06Z Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected between 17Z today and 03Z Thursday. Any of the TAF sites
may be adversely affected by storms during this time period.
Winds should be light and variable (3 to 8 kt) today, with a
slight preference for southeasterly winds.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High confidence in forecast
winds speeds and moderate confidence in the wind direction.
Moderate confidence in the occurrence of thunderstorms. High
confidence that the low ceiling threat will conclude by 14Z today.

Albright

&&
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