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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
624 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Key Messages:

-A low chance for afternoon thunderstorms in the eastern portions of
Central Georgia today and for portions of south-central GA and areas
south of the NE GA mountains on Friday.

-Slightly above normal temperatures today and Friday.

Latest surface analysis places a stationary boundary in the vicinity
of Americus to Macon to Sandersville. Scattered mid-level cloud
cover is being observed near and mainly to the south of the front
with some high clouds starting to move in from North AL. Isolated to
scattered afternoon thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity
and/or south of the boundary today. Severe weather is not expected.
Midlevel energy associated with a shortwave should nudge this
boundary a little further south later today. However, isolated
afternoon thunderstorms will still remain a possibility across the
southern portions of Central GA on Friday. An isolated shower or
storm will also be possible for areas south of the NE GA mountains
aided by orographic lift. Otherwise, most area across North and
north-central GA should remain mostly dry through Friday.

Forecast high temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s
this afternoon (upper 70s to mid 80s in NE GA). Similar temperatures
are expected on Friday but perhaps upwards of 1 to 2 degrees. Heat
indices will range from the low 90s to the North and upper 90s
(nearing 100 in some spots) in Central GA both days. With clearing
skies tonight, low temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper
60s to the north (low to mid 60s in NE GA) and low 70s in Central GA.

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Key Messages:

- Scattered thunderstorms will largely remain confined to central
Georgia this weekend, while highs will increase into the 90s each
day.

- The potential development of a low pressure system off of the
Atlantic coast introduces uncertainty Sunday into early next week.

- After the weekend, rain chances will gradually increase each day
ahead of a slowly advancing frontal boundary.

A look at the 500 mb level reveals an amplified pattern over the
eastern CONUS on Friday night, with toughing extending southward
from a closed low over Southeast Canada and a ridge extending along
the Mississippi River Valley through the Great Lakes. Surface high
pressure associated with this ridge will be centered over the
Appalachians. Drier air (with dewpoints in the 60s) under the high
combined with warmer temperatures aloft will have largely inhibited
chances for showers and thunderstorms across the majority of the
forecast area on Friday. Any isolated thunderstorms in portions of
east-central Georgia should quickly diminish in the hours
immediately following sunset.

Conditions on Saturday will be similar to Friday with the Southeast
still remaining underneath the ridge as it translates east. To the
south of the ridge, a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT)
low is expected to retrograde westward along the Gulf Coast. Thus,
precipitation is expected to be focused further south, though
diurnally-driven convection will still be likely in portions of
central Georgia on Saturday afternoon, with scattered
thunderstorms (25-35 percent chance) forecast mainly south of a
line from Columbus to Macon to Warrenton. Afternoon highs will
rise into the low 90s across the majority of the area, with 80s
remaining in the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia. Both
temperatures and rain chances will increase slightly on Sunday as
the ridge axis clears Georgia to the east.

Another thing to keep an eye on this weekend will be the weakening
frontal boundary stalled across the northern Gulf and Florida
Peninsula. It is possible that a surface low may develop in the
baroclinic zone in the vicinity of the front late Saturday into
early Sunday. Guidance is trending towards better agreement that
this low would be most likely to develop off the south Atlantic
coast. Here, it could tap into the warm sea surface temperatures,
intensify, and gain tropical characteristic. The NHC has maintained
a 40 percent chance of tropical development over the next 7 days in
an area in the Atlantic spanning from the east Florida coast to the
north Carolina coast. Much of the model guidance favors the low
advancing northward towards the mid-Atlantic coast, keeping Georgia
on the dry side of the system. However, the chance remains that it
could push westward into east Georgia/South Carolina, which would
favor higher rain chances and QPF in our forecast area on Sunday and
in the early parts of next week.

The feature that will likely steer the potential tropical low to the
east of Georgia will also bring impacts of its own next week: A
shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes on Monday will
develop a surface low over the Northeast, which will extend a cold
front through the Tennessee Valley region. As this front sags
southward towards Georgia, atmospheric moisture will continue to
rebound on Monday and Tuesday, with PoPs gradually increasing
accordingly. Highest rain chances are currently expected on
Wednesday as another shortwave swinging across the Great Lakes
finally gives the frontal boundary a push into Georgia. As dewpoints
climb with increasing moisture, heat index values could reach 100 in
portions of east and central Georgia.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions to persist at all sites through the period. A
midlevel trough will lead to FEW to BKN cirrus this afternoon and
clearing between 03-07z. At all the northern sites, NW winds 4-8kts
will shift to the NNE/NE between 14-20z before switching back to the
NW around 00z at less than 5kts. FEW to SCT cu may also be possible
this afternoon at KMCN/KCSG.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

High confidence on all elements.

07

&&
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