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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
642 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Key Messages:

- Dry for most today, with isolated thunderstorms possible
primarily for areas to the south and east of Macon.

- Increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms for the
eastern half of the forecast area Sunday associated with
moisture on the periphery of Tropical Depression Three.

- Highs remain in the upper 80s to mid-90s.

Discussion:

With weak ridging aloft for the eastern half of CONUS, the catalyst
for much of the sensible weather over the weekend will be Tropical
Depression Three. While the forecast track keeps it well to our
east, the surge in moisture -- PWATs of 1.5" or greater --
associated with it will bring chances for thunderstorms to portions
of the area through Sunday. Subsidence (and thus drying) are
hallmarks of the northeasterly flow channeling into area on the
western edge of the system, so much of the northern and western
halves of the forecast area are likely to remain rain-free. For
today, expect isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon
and evening, primarily for areas to the south and east of Macon,
tapering off in the few hours surrounding sunset.

The latest NHC forecast brings the system onshore across South
Carolina over the course of the day on Sunday, and as it moves
inland, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is likely
once again across the eastern half of the forecast area. Instability
will be on the lower side (by summer standards), so not expecting
much in the way of severe storm activity. However, as we saw on
Friday, an isolated strong to perhaps marginally severe storm impact
cannot be ruled out for the most advantageous updrafts through
Sunday.

Highs today and tomorrow will be in the upper 80s to mid-90s, skewed
slightly lower in areas with highest thunderstorm chances due to
probability of increased cloud cover. Lows will drop into the 60s to
lower 70s.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Key Messages:

- Rain chances and coverage through Tuesday will be largely
influenced by the evolution of what is currently Tropical Depression
Three.

- A more typical, summertime pattern of diurnal convection will
resume around mid-week.

- Heat index values will increase starting early next week due to
increasing temperatures amid tropical moisture.

Discussion:

The current National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast for what is now
Tropical Depression Three has the system pushing inland over the
Carolinas by Sunday evening into early Monday morning. While the
system itself will not be directly impacting north and central
Georgia, it will bring with it an influx of tropical moisture that
will overspread much of the CWA. The SREF is progging PWAT ranging
from 1.5" to 1.9", but the GEFS, EPS, as well as deterministic
guidance suggest that entrainment of drier air and/or subsidence
along the periphery of the tropical system could hinder moisture
availability, thus potentially putting a lid on rain chances across
portions of the CWA early next week. As such, PoPs range from ~20%
to ~40% on Monday and Tuesday. The potential for widespread and/or
organized severe weather continues to be quite low, given the weak
deep-layer flow across the Southeast and resulting lack of mid-
/upper-level disturbances to provide ascent or frontal lift. Weak
troughing is progged to take hold in the mid-/upper-levels through
the second half of the work week, which will bring back a more
typical summertime pattern of diurnally-driven showers and storms.
PoPs on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday range from ~40% to ~60%.

Temperatures and humidity will bear watching Monday through
Thursday. Highs in the mid-/upper-90s and dew points in the lower-
/mid-70s are progged to push heat index values to 105-108 degrees
mainly across portions of central and eastern Georgia, with isolated
locales potentially hitting ~110 degrees. Heat Advisories would be
needed for such values that are expected to last at least an hour.
That said, daily showers and thunderstorms -- and resulting cloud
cover -- could prevent said heat index values from being realized in
some areas.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

VFR conds expected thru the TAF period. Primarily SKC or cigs at
20-25kft, with FEW-SCT cu at 4-6kft during the aftn. Winds will
remain out of the ENE/E for a majority of the period at 5-10kts,
with low-end gusts to 15-18kts thru the evening. Expect a shift
to the NW by 16-17Z Sunday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

96

&&
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