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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
203 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025

Key Messages:

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the region this
afternoon and tonight.

- Cool, cloudy and rainy conditions are expected on Saturday.

Today:

A weak shortwave tracking through the Southeast and lingering
outflow boundaries should provide the lift necessary for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this morning in east central Georgia.
MUCAPE values in the 500 to 1250 J/kg range and effective shear
of 20 to 30 kt could lead to a couple of stronger storms, but in
general the risk for severe weather is low. Given estimated mid
level lapse rates in the 6.5 to 7.0 C/km range, the primary
concern with any more robust storms should be marginally severe
hail (dimes to quarters). The overall potential for storm should
decline after 9 AM as the shortwave moves east and weak subsidence
sets in.

Diurnal heating this afternoon may lead to additional isolated
thunderstorm development between 3 PM and 9 PM today. Most locations
probably won`t see storm activity during this period due to the
isolated nature of the storms. Terrain in north Georgia and
lingering outflow boundaries from morning convection will be key
features to monitor for storm formation. In either case, the area
with the best environment for any stronger convection looks to be
east central Georgia, where the 00Z HREF suggests ~1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE with the diurnal heating this afternoon and 0-6 km shear of
~25kt. The primary threats with any storms in this area would be
marginally severe hail or wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range.

Tonight into Saturday:

This period should feature a deepening upper level low along the
Gulf coast and a surface high over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. A
cold front associated with the surface high should drive cooler and
drier air into Georgia. If rain falls into this cooler airmass
Saturday afternoon it could lead evaporative cooling and limit
high temperatures to the lower 60s. If not, highs may reach the
lower 70s. Afternoon highs in the 60s would be 9 to 14 degrees
below seasonal averages. Shower and thunderstorm activity should
increase in the region tonight and remain with us on Saturday.
Rain totals near an inch are possible in central Georgia by
Saturday night. A deep layer of dry air and a greater distance
from the favorable southerly flow ahead of the upper low should
lead to lighter rain amounts in the mountains of north Georgia
(< 0.25 inches). If you have outdoor plans Saturday, anticipated
cloudy, cool and rainy conditions.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025

Key Messages:

- Multiple days of cloudy and rainy weather are anticipated to
start the workweek.

- Isolated river flooding concerns may develop by Wednesday.

The upper level low over the Gulf coast should remain nearly
stationary on Sunday, then it will move northeast at a painfully
slow clip between Monday and Wednesday. As this process occurs
the low will track through Georgia leading to multiple days of
rainfall, cloudy skies and below average temperatures. The start
to the upcoming workweek looks like one of those dreary periods
where coffee becomes a coveted commodity. Widespread rainfall
totals in the 1 to 3 inch range are expected between Sunday and
Wednesday, with localized amounts of 4 to 5 inches possible. The
higher totals are favored over central and east central Georgia
where sandy soils and drier conditions should hinder any river
flooding potential. That being said it wouldn`t be surprising to
see a couple of rivers approach flood stage by Wednesday.
Thunderstorms are also possible during this period, however the
overall severe threat remains low on any given day.

Sunday should be the coolest day during this stretch, with
afternoon highs in the 60s and lower 70s. From there temperatures
should rise by 4 to 7 degrees each day, eventually returning to
widespread values in the upper 80s on Thursday.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025

Conditions are expected to be primarily VFR through the afternoon
hours, with a scattered cu field between 035-050 underneath upper
level clouds. Isolated to scattered TSRA is largely expected to
remain south of all TAF sites this afternoon, though a stray storm
could move as far north as MCN/CSG, though odds are low. Winds
will be NW at 4-8 kts this afternoon and evening, shifting to E/NE
in the early morning hours on Saturday. These E/NE winds will
increase to 10-12 kts with gusts of 18-22 kts after 12Z on
Saturday. More widespread precipitation and lower clouds will
begin to advance northward overnight into Saturday. MVFR ceilings
and prevailing -SHRA are anticipated to arrive at ATL by 12Z,
with IFR and moderate SHRA becoming possible in the afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all aspects of the forecast through 00Z this
evening.
Medium confidence on all other elements.

King

&&
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