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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
324 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Key Messages:

- Isolated showers possible across far north Georgia today
and tomorrow. Sunshine for most elsewhere, outside some
persistent higher cloud cover near the metro this afternoon.

- Temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s overnight, upper
70s to 80s today and tomorrow across north and central
Georgia.

Forecast:

Large somewhat cutoff upper level low continues to meander over
the eastern CONUS today and tomorrow which will help keep a
relatively cool and dry airmass in place over much of north and
central Georgia. Broad surface high over the Appalachians in the
northeast and a surface low spinning off the eastern Florida
coastline make for a pretty classic wedge/CAD environment, and we
have broad easterly winds across the CWA as the cooler, drier air
continues to spill into the area from the northeast. Speaking off
those winds, the pressure gradient combined with a bit of mixing
has made things a bit breezy this morning into the afternoon, with
winds regularly 10-15 mph in many places. These should tail off
quickly into the evening. Temperatures are on track for the most
part with 70s and 80s across the CWA. Metro is a touch cooler than
expected thanks to some persistent cloud cover that has lingered
from some overnight just on the northwest side of the metro. Oh
no, it`s in the upper 70s, how tragic.

Only convection today will be across far north Georgia. A little
bit of moisture is trapped between the wedge and separate airmass
to the north along an axis from AL through north GA into TN.
Scattered thunderstorms have already started in Alabama and TN
where moisture is better. Across north GA, any convection will
likely be due to terrain uplift, or from storms which manage to
slowly drift in from the northwest. Overall only expecting some
very isolated chances, peaking around this evening.

Tonight will see clear skies, calmer winds, and some decent
radiational cooling. Expecting lows near 60 across most all of
north and central Georgia. The exception will be the mountains of
NE GA, where the valleys will likely dip well into the 50s with
drainage effects. Tomorrow looks like more of the same as there is
little change in the upper level pattern. Highs will be a touch
warmer but still in the lower to mid 80s. Best rain chances will
again be across far north Georgia during the afternoon. Clearing
again tomorrow night, with lows near 60 again, and 50s in the
valleys of the mountains.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms Wed/Thu in north GA, with mostly
dry conditions to follow through the weekend.

- Around normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

On Wednesday, a weakening mid-level shortwave will drop from the
Midwest into the Tennessee Valley, along the backside of a deep
trough covering much of the Eastern US. As the wave approaches the
area, low level flow will turn out of the south, bringing in a
slightly warmer and more humid airmass, with PWAT values climbing
up to 1.5-1.75". This moisture combined with large scale forcing
from the wave will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms
across north GA through Thursday. It is worth noting that the
latest trends in model guidance have been much less impressive
with the wave/moisture than in recent days, so it would not be
surprising if rain chances continue to trend lower. One thing that
has remained consistent is that a cold front associated with a
strong low pressure system over the Great Lakes looks to push
through the region late Thursday into Thursday night. This will
bring a dry airmass back into the region for the end of the week
and throughout the weekend, with little to no rainfall chances.
The airmass will not be as anomalously cool as we have seen
recently, so temperatures will be right around to just above
normal from Friday through the weekend.

Culver

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

VFR through TAF period. A few higher clouds remain in and around
metro TAF sites. Cu field development should remain mostly N to NW
of airfields, though can`t rule out few by the late afternoon. Any
rain/storms expected to stay well north of all TAF sites. Winds
will be E to ENE through period. Wind will be 7-12 kts this
afternoon, going to 4-7 kts tonight into tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High all elements.

Lusk

&&
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