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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered storms expected through this evening with
the main threats being gusty winds (40-50mph) and locally
heavy rainfall.

- Heat advisory has been issued for east central Georgia
tomorrow for heat indices up to 106-107.

- Decreased rain chances tomorrow but isolated thunderstorms
still possible.

Discussion:

High pressure building in over the northern gulf coast has lead to a
NW flow of sorts over the ridge to our south. Clusters of isolated
to scattered thunderstorms have began over the area with the main
threats being gusty winds (40-50mph) and locally heavy rainfall
that could lead to isolated flooding concerns like the past couple
of days. This mornings PWAT was at 2" but forecasted PWATs are
showing 1.5-1.7" thus contributing to the potential for precip
loading and higher than normal rain rates over the area. Tomorrow
should see the high pressure begin to build in further north which
should limit rain chances but again with the heat also building
in we are likely to see at least isolated storms somewhere in GA
(likely northeast).

Speaking of heat, max temps tomorrow range from 95-98 with
widespread heat indices over east central Georgia at 105-106 with
locally up to 108 possible. Due to these factors, a heat advisory
has been issued for east central Georgia from 11am to 8pm tomorrow
so make sure to follow proper heat safety. Areas outside of the heat
advisory can still expect to see temps in the 90-95 degree range
with heat indices from 98-104.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Key Messages:

- There is a 60% chance of a Heat Advisory for parts of central
Georgia on Monday.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms chances will gradually
rise during the workweek.

Heat Concerns Early in the Week:

The initial concern for the upcoming workweek will be the potential
for Heat Advisory conditions in north and central Georgia Monday and
Tuesday. Temperatures should rise into the mid and upper 90s during
this period (4 to 8 degrees above seasonal averages), egged on by
weak subsidence, above average 850 mb temperatures and decreased
afternoon storm activity north of a developing low near Florida.
Northerly surface winds should also limit moisture advection, giving
and additional 1 to 3 degree boost to afternoon high temperatures.
Both days may flirt with Heat Advisory conditions during the noon to
8 PM time window, mainly in central Georgia. The odds of Heat
Advisory being issued on Monday are around 75%, while they area
around 35% for Tuesday. The primary factor limiting our confidence
in Heat Advisory conditions (heat index of 105 degrees or above) is
uncertainty in the surface dewpoints. They may come in a couple
degrees lower than the NBM guidance (current forecast) and this
would limit peak heat indices.

Thunderstorms Chances this Week:

Over the course of the week afternoon and evening thunderstorm
activity should gradually trend upwards. The aforementioned low over
Florida will be the main driver of this trend. It will shift
westwards as the week passes and this will push higher precipitable
water (PW) values back into Georgia. Mean PW value from the GEFS and
EPS are both hovering near 2 inches between Wednesday and next
weekend. If the low tracks slightly further north than the ensemble
mean PW values in the 2.2 to 2.3 inch range could occur. With this
level of tropical moisture in the region, thunderstorm rain rates
could be high (2 to 4 inches per hour) and this may promote an
isolated flooding risk. A lack of shear will limit the potential for
severe weather this week to primary an isolated downburst wind (gust
40 to 50 mph) threat. This risk could increase slightly on Tuesday
due to strong boundary layer heating/mixing.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Scattered storms are currently popping up over eastern GA and
should continue until sunset. Current cu field is ~4kft which
should lead to more coverage with storms as the afternoon goes on.
Clear skies into the overnight into morning hours before cu field
is expected to form again tomorrow. Chances for thunderstorms
tomorrow evening are lower than today so kept them out of the TAF
but still cannot rule out an isolated storm tomorrow evening.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on tsra tomorrow.
Medium to high on all other elements.

Hernandez

&&
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