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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1032 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

No impactful changes have been made to the short term period. If
our current forecast overnight low temperatures are realized, ATL
will set a new record for maximum overnight low temp (forecast:
77/record: 76). MCN may tie the record (77) and AHN may come up
just one degree shy (forecast: 75/record: 76).

The afternoon and evening runs of the CAMs continue to depict the
development of a "ridge-riding" MCS across the Carolinas tomorrow
(Wednesday) afternoon, then bring it southwestward/westward
across portions of north and central Georgia in the evening. The
environment will be extremely unstable and lapse rates could peak
at 8.0+ C/km, per some CAMs. An MCS could result in a more
expansive threat for damaging wind gusts, so we will keep a close
eye on the hi-res model guidance overnight and during the first
half of tomorrow.

Martin


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 104 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Key Messages:

- A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM Wednesday for all
areas except the northeast Georgia mountains.

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will return Wednesday
afternoon and evening with a primary threat of damaging wind
gusts.

Hot and humid weather continues across most of north and central
Georgia today as the large ridge over the Eastern US peaks in
strength. The ridge will do its best to squash out any convection
this afternoon and evening, but a few showers or storms could
develop across far NE GA in the mountains. Temperatures already
reached the low to mid 90s as of noon, and will increase another
few degrees through late afternoon, peaking in the mid to upper
90s. These high temps could reach within a degree or two of daily
records at Atlanta (99 in 1988/1930) and Macon (101 in 1988/1930),
but would be several degrees short for Columbus and Athens.
Regardless of any records, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low
70s, peak heat index values will be in the 100-108F range. Thus, a
Heat Advisory is in effect for all areas except the far NE GA
mountains. Tonight`s lows will provide very little relief, only
dropping into the mid to upper 70s. A few sites could even flirt
with daily records for warmest minimum temperature.

Wednesday, the ridge will start to weaken as it gets pressed on
by an upper level low moving from the western Atlantic to over the
coast of Florida. The combination of weakening influence of the
ridge and increasing low to mid-level moisture from the low will
bring a return to convective activity across the area, primarily
during the late afternoon and evening hours. With the late start
to convection and a very warm airmass still in place (850 temps of
23C), temperatures will rapidly rise into the mid to upper 90s by
early afternoon. Heat index values will again peak in the
100-108F range, so a Heat Advisory will remain in effect through
Wednesday evening. By mid to late Wednesday afternoon, mid-level
lapse rates will have increased to 7-7.5 C/km over the area, which
combined with the hot and humid airmass will lead to extreme
instability (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg). With this consideration, the
Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Slight Risk (Level 2 of
5) for severe thunderstorms across most of the area. The coverage
of storms may only be isolated to scattered, but any storms that
form could quickly become strong to severe, with damaging winds as
the primary threat. Given the significant instability, large hail
could occur with storms that become organized enough with the
meager deep layer shear (15-20kts) over the area.

Culver


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 104 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Key Messages:

- Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms will
be a fixture of the forecast between Thursday and early next
week.

- Temperatures will be near or slightly above seasonal averages
this weekend.

Dominate high pressure ridge will begin to lose its control on
the region by Thursday, returning the area to a more summer time
pattern by the weekend. Additional moisture will funnel into the
Southeast around the periphery of a subtropical high, promoting
the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon and evening Thursday through early next week. On
the whole, widespread severe activity is not expected given the
environment, but a few strong storms could produce strong
downburst winds. Temperatures will remain just above seasonal
normals.

31


&&
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