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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
630 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

500mb analysis shows a broad longwave trough just off the east
coast. The main shortwave energy in the base of the trough is
moving east across the Middle Atlantic States. Earlier regional
radar showed some very light returns across northern portions of
the state indicating some flurries, but those returns have
diminished.

At the surface, a weak frontal boundary is across central GA. The
boundary should continue pushing southward as strong high
pressure builds in from the NW. A dry and colder airmass will
settle across the CWA through the remainder of the short term.
Temperatures today and tonight will average 10 to 15 degrees below
normal for this time of year. Some moderation is expected for
Wednesday. Will have to monitor the southward progression of the
stratus shield over TN. Models may not have a great handle on what
is occurring.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

The long term period picks up on Wednesday night with another
shortwave/disturbance pivoting around the base of the persistent
larger-scale trough anchored over east-central Canada. Isolated to
scattered rain is likely as moisture increases courtesy of return
flow from the Gulf of Mexico. A period of overnight temperatures
in the lower 30s is expected across the higher elevations (~2000
ft and above) of far north Georgia, so a wintry mix cannot be
ruled out. No accumulation of wintry precip is expected, and
rainfall totals will be scarce (less than 0.1 inch).

The shortwave and its associated cold front will bring another
shot of cold air to north and central Georgia Thursday night into
Friday. Morning lows will generally be in the teens to 20s and
afternoon highs will be in the lower 40s to lower 50s (with highs
in the 30s in the mountains). Both Friday and Saturday are progged
to be dry, although there is a non-zero chance for isolated rain
on Saturday, should the GEFS be correct in faster arrival of
moisture ahead of a weak mid-level disturbance currently progged
to dive south-southeastward from the Upper Midwest to Great Lakes.
Have slight chance (20% or lower) PoPs Saturday night into Sunday
morning, which is more aligned with the timing of increasing
moisture per the EPS and GEPS. Again, low temperatures in the
lower 30s could mean the possibility of a wintry mix across
portions of far north Georgia above 2000 ft.

A pattern change is on tap for Sunday and Monday. The global
ensembles depict a mid-/upper-level shortwave trough tracking
eastward from the Desert Southwest and perhaps merging with the
larger-scale trough that is progged to encompass much of the
western and central CONUS. Moisture advection in response to this
larger-scale forcing/ascent may support isolated rain as early as
Sunday morning/afternoon, with increasing PoPs indicated by the
NBM (National Blend of Models) Sunday night through Monday night
as forcing/ascent increases with the eastward shift of the trough
and continued moisture advection. This synoptic setup could bring
beneficial rainfall to much of the forecast area, with the current
forecast package calling for anywhere from 0.25 inch to 1.25
inches across much of the forecast area, and as much as 2.50
inches in the mountains thanks to orographic lift. That said,
these rainfall totals are subject to change with subsequent
forecast packages, as the moisture axis may shift.

A warming trend will increase temperatures enough such that
overnight/early Monday morning lows will be well above freezing
for the vast majority of the forecast area. High temperatures are
progged to be in the 60s along and south of I-20 on Monday, with
50s elsewhere for the most part.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

A brief period of morning MVF cigs possible, otherwise VFR. Winds
will remain on the west side. Some low end gusts to around 20kt
possible through late afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence all elements.
NListemaa

&&
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