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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
741 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Key Messages:

- A Heat Advisory is in place from Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday evening as heat index values rise up to 107.

Oppressive dome of high pressure over the eastern US will continue
to bake the area through the short term. A warming temperature trend
and increasing dew points through Tuesday night will push Heat Index
values above 100 degrees each afternoon. A Heat Advisory has been
issued for much of north and central Georgia (not including far
northeast GA mountains) for Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening.

Trapped moisture under the dome could produce isolated convection
this afternoon and PoPs may need to be increased slightly for
Tuesday afternoon if the models are still hinting at the potential.
Main concern in any developing storm would be lightning and gusty
winds.

LGB

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisory issued through Wednesday evening. Heat index
values from 105-108 across much of north and central Georgia.

- Rain chances increase beginning Wednesday evening into the
weekend as high pressure breaks down.

Discussion:

Starting off with Wednesday, the area will see the upper level high
pressure solidly over the area with peaks in 850mb heights. This
will contribute to one more day of increased temperatures and heat
index values. With moisture in the area an elevated PWATs temps and
dewpoints are expected to remain above normal. A heat advisory has
been issued through Wednesday evening to account for this. Heat
index values from 105-109 are expected across north and central
Georgia with the highest values focused on east central Georgia. One
limiting factor will be rain chances Wednesday evening which have
pushed further west but haven`t increased too much. Overall guidance
is in line with a later evening into overnight Thursday timeframe
for increased rain chances as opposed to the afternoon. This is in
line with the ridge beginning to break down into Thursday. Kept the
chances at 25-30% but have pushed them into western Georgia as the
axis of 90% chance of greater than 0.01" has shifted. Of note is SPC
has included the area in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
weather on Wednesday. This is due to projected steep lapse rates
resulting in the threat for damaging wind gusts and small hail.

Pushing into Thursday, the overall ridging pattern begins to break
down putting us more into a typical summertime pattern with
southerly flow and afternoon/evening chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Do feel that NBM was a bit aggressive on rain chances
into the weekend so elected to decrease chances a tad into the
weekend. Current forecasted PWATs show 1.5-1.6" which is right
around average for this time of year which is the partial reasoning
for lowering the PoPs in the extended. As the forecast gets closer
in time if there is a stronger signal, then could see chances
increase. Overall expecting scattered afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms each day that are likely to have gusty winds and
frequent lightning. With no real upper level flow, storms should
remain strong but are unlikely to become severe.

Overall temps through the longterm should also begin to moderate to
around normal for this time of year with the break down of the ridge
and the daily rain chances and thunderstorms.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

VFR through period. Winds light to variable generally from E.
Isolated thunderstorms psbl Tuesday afternoon, but PoPs too low to
include in TAF.


//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High all elements.

SM

&&
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